Feed Planet 60 - Mach 2024

FEED PLANET • MARCH - MART 2024 80 ARTICLE • MAKALE suggest that the number of vessels clearing the Suez Ca- nal has declined by over 40 percent in the past two months. Apart from constraining one of the main sources of foreign currency for Egypt, the events in the Red Sea have already impacted global value chains, especially for sectors that rely on just-in-time delivery systems. For agricultural commodities, the passage is particularly important for exports of grains and oilseeds from the EU, the Russian Federation and Ukraine to destinations in Asia and east Africa, while rice and other commodities travel east- wards from Asia. Fertilizer trade, including potash from the Russian Federation to Asia, also transits through the Red Sea. Quotations for Asia-Europe containerized shipping – typi- cally used for rice – have increased by up to six times, de- pending on the timing, while the benchmark Shanghai Conta- inerized Freight Index has doubled between mid-December 2023 and mid-January 2024. For dry bulk (e.g. grains, oilse- eds as well as some fertilizers), broad effects have not yet been observed, although longer shipping routes will likely increase freight costs, mostly depending on the evolution of crude oil prices. There is also a concern about the impact of longer shipping routes on perishable products and live ani- mals, especially those heading to Near East markets. At a macro level, the Red Sea disruptions could lower competitiveness of Black Sea and other European origins to destinations in Asia, while producers on the American conti- nent might benefit. In several countries higher shipping costs will likely also impact food import bills and subsequently re- tail prices. The extent to which these will translate into higher consumer prices will depend on whether FOB (and farmgate) prices can absorb some of the increases in shipping costs. As for crude oil prices, higher energy costs could have spillover effects on agriculture due to the sector’s high energy intensity, including for Nitrogen fertilizer production. The cumulative effect of these disruptions could translate into extended cargo travel distances, escalating trade costs, and a surge in greenhouse gas emissions. Makro düzeyde, Kızıldeniz’deki aksaklıklar Karadeniz ve diğer Avrupa menşeli ürünlerin Asya’daki rekabet gücünü azaltabilirken, Amerika kıtasındaki üreticiler bu durumdan fayda sağlayabilir. Birçok ülkede yüksek nakliye maliyetleri gıda ithalat faturalarını ve dolayısıyla perakende fiyatlarını da etkileyecektir. Bunların tüketici fiyatlarını ne ölçüde etki- leyeceği, FOB (ve tarladan çıkış) fiyatlarının nakliye maliyet- lerindeki artışların bir kısmını absorbe edip edemeyeceğine bağlı olacaktır. Ham petrol fiyatlarında olduğu gibi, azotlu gübre üretimi de dahil olmak üzere sektörün yüksek enerji yoğunluğu nedeniyle daha yüksek enerji maliyetlerinin tarım üzerinde yayılma etkileri olabilir. Bu aksaklıkların kümülatif etkisi, kar- go seyahat mesafelerinin uzaması, ticaret maliyetlerinin art- ması ve sera gazı emisyonlarının artması anlamına geliyor. Houthi military helicopter flies over a cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released on Nov. 20, 2023. Source: Houthi Military Media Husi askeri helikopteri 20 Kasım 2023'te yayınlanan bu fotoğrafta Kızıldeniz'de kargo gemisinin üzerinde uçuyor. Kaynak: Husi Askeri Medyası