Feed Planet 66 - Eylül 2024

73 ARTICLE • MAKALE Ancak, 2024 yılı için ihracat tahmini %22 oranında düşürü- lerek 347 bin ton olarak belirlendi. Bu durumun başlıca se- bebi, iç piyasada artan tavuk fiyatlarını kontrol altına almak amacıyla hükümetin Mayıs-Aralık 2024 döneminde uygula- dığı ihracat kotası. İlk olarak aylık 10 bin ton olarak belirlenen kota, sektörün talepleri doğrultusunda, Ağustos’tan itibaren aylık 22 bin 500 tona çıkarıldı ve bu artışın perakende fiyat- ların istikrarlı kalması şartına bağlı olduğu belirtildi. Irak’ta pa- zar payını kaybetme endişelerine rağmen, sektör uzmanları, Irak’ın büyük miktardaki dondurulmuş Türk tavuk stokları se- bebiyle bu riskin azaldığını düşünüyor. 2024 yılı için ihracat hacmindeki azalma, bölgesel istikrar- sızlık ve yüksek patojenik kuş gribi salgınları gibi diğer fak- törlerle de ilişkili. 2023 yılında toplam tavuk ihracatı 445 bin 47 ton olmuş ancak Irak, İran ve Japonya gibi önemli pazar- lardan gelen ticaret kısıtlamaları ve Türkiye’deki ekonomik belirsizlikler nedeniyle yıllık bazda düşüş gösterdi. ges, and exporters are advised to consult the FSIS Export Library for the latest updates on restricted areas. Additionally, Türkiye employs high tariffs to discourage chicken imports and protect its domestic industry, with a 65% tariff on imported chicken meat and 121.5% on proces- sed chicken products. 2025 OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES FOR CHICKEN MEAT EXPORTS In 2025, Turkish chicken meat exports are forecast to reach 374,000 metric tons (MT), marking an 8% year-over- year growth, according to the USDA report. This projecti- on aligns with increased domestic production and steady international demand, particularly from Iraq, which remains the top export destination, accounting for nearly half of Türkiye’s total exports. However, the 2024 export estimate has been reduced by 22% to 347,000 MT, largely due to the government’s de- cision to impose an export quota from May to December to control rising domestic chicken prices. Initially, the quota was set at 10,000 MT per month, but after industry negoti- ations, the government raised it to 22,500 MT per month starting in August, with the condition that retail prices rema- in stable. Despite initial fears of losing market share in Iraq, industry insiders believe the risk has been mitigated due to Iraq’s large frozen stocks of Turkish poultry. Other factors, including regional instability and avian inf- luenza outbreaks, have also contributed to the reduction in export volumes in 2024. In 2023, total chicken exports amounted to 445,047 MT but saw a year-over-year decline due to trade restrictions from key markets like Iraq, Iran, and Japan, as well as economic uncertainties in Türkiye during the general elections. Figure 4. Türkiye’s Chicken Meat Ex- ports, 2022-2024, First Six Months Comparison Şekil 4. Türkiye’nin Tavuk Eti İhracatı Türkiye’nin Tavuk Eti İhracatı, 2022- 2024, İlk Altı Ay Karşılaştırmalı Source/ Kaynak: Trade Data Monitor, LLC. SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED In addition to the quota, past cases of HPAI as well as political and economic turmoil in the region have to a lesser extent also contributed to reduced export volumes in 2024. Figure 6. Türkiye’s Chicken Meat Exports, 2022-2024, First Six Months Comparison Source: Trade Dat Monitor, LLC. In 2023, Turkish chicken meat exports totaled 445,047 MT and were valued at $33 million. Exports were down year-over-year because top trading partners like Iraq, Iran, and Japa restricted trade after several HPAI ases occur ed in Turkiye. Another cause of reduced export demand was the econ mic uncertainty leading up to the g neral lection in May 2023. Figure 7. Türkiye’s Chicken Meat & Product Exports, 2019-2023 So rce: Trade Data Monitor, LLC. Note: Chicken paw export numbers we e taken from Turkish Association of Poultry Meat Producers and Breeders. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Metric Tons (MT) 2022 2023 2024 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (MT) Processed Poultry Meat Paws Chicken Meat